elitere | Apr. 16, 2026
A new report from RE/MAX Canada is highlighting a long-term shift that could reshape the Canadian housing market over the next decade: a gradual wave of downsizing driven by the country’s aging population.
While the concept itself is not new, the data provides a clearer picture of how and when this transition may unfold—and more importantly, why it may take longer than many expect.
Canada’s population is aging at a steady and significant pace. According to Statistics Canada, approximately 7.74 million Canadians are currently over the age of 65, representing nearly 19% of the population. By 2030, that number is projected to increase to almost 25%.
As this demographic continues to grow, it is expected to influence housing decisions in a meaningful way. Many homeowners will begin to consider what their next stage of living looks like—whether that involves moving to a smaller home, simplifying maintenance, or transitioning into a property that better supports long-term needs.
The idea of a downsizing wave is not about a sudden shift in inventory—it’s about a gradual change in how and when people choose to move.
Despite this clear demographic trend, the RE/MAX Canada report emphasizes that downsizing is unlikely to occur all at once. Instead, it is expected to unfold gradually over time.
One of the primary reasons is the limited availability of suitable housing options.
Nearly half of Canadians—49%—report low availability of downsizing options in their communities, while an additional 8% say there is no availability at all. Among Canadians aged 65 and older, this concern is even more pronounced, with 65% indicating that options are limited or nonexistent.
This lack of inventory plays a significant role. While many homeowners may be open to the idea of downsizing, they are often unable to find properties that meet their needs in terms of location, layout, or lifestyle. As a result, they remain in their current homes longer than originally planned.
The report also provides insight into how many Canadians are actually planning to downsize in the coming years.
Only 10% of Canadians say they plan to move to a smaller home within the next decade. Among those aged 65 and older, that number increases to 16%, yet nearly half—46%—indicate they plan to remain in their current homes.
Even among those considering downsizing, uncertainty remains a key factor. Seventy-three percent expressed concern about their options, with 32% describing themselves as very concerned.
These findings reinforce the idea that while downsizing is part of the long-term outlook for the Canadian housing market, it is not an immediate or guaranteed shift.
Downsizing has long been considered an important part of the natural cycle of the housing market. When homeowners transition out of larger properties, it can create opportunities for younger buyers to enter the market or for move-up buyers to find the space they need.
However, the RE/MAX Canada report suggests the impact may be more nuanced.
Thirty-four percent of Canadians believe an increase in downsizing would make it easier for younger buyers to enter the market, while 26% believe it would make it harder, and 29% say it would have no real impact.
At the same time, demand is expected to remain strong, with 23% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 planning to purchase their first home within the next decade.
This points to a broader dynamic within the Canadian housing market: while demographic trends may influence supply over time, the outcome will depend heavily on how housing availability evolves.
At the centre of this issue is a fundamental challenge—housing supply.
According to the report, many homeowners who would consider downsizing are delaying or abandoning their plans due to a lack of suitable options.
Without sufficient inventory to support these transitions, the natural movement within the housing market slows. Fewer homeowners move, fewer properties become available, and the overall pace of activity becomes more constrained.
This is why the anticipated downsizing trend is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.
While downsizing is often positioned as a natural next step, it is not always a straightforward decision.
For many homeowners, the focus tends to be on reducing costs or maintenance—but it is equally important to consider how a smaller space will support your day-to-day lifestyle. Downsizing too quickly, or too aggressively, can lead to compromises that may not be immediately obvious.
In some cases, homeowners move into a property that ultimately does not meet their long-term needs—whether that is due to limited space, layout constraints, or a change in lifestyle priorities. This can result in the need to move again within a relatively short period of time.
A well-planned transition should balance both financial and lifestyle considerations. The goal is not simply to move into a smaller home, but to ensure the next property is the right fit for how you want to live in the years ahead.
The idea of a downsizing wave is grounded in real demographic change, and over time, it will play a role in shaping the Canadian housing market.
However, the data makes one thing clear: this is not a short-term shift. It is a longer-term transition that will depend on how effectively the market adapts—particularly in creating housing options that meet the needs of older homeowners.
Understanding how these broader trends connect to individual decisions is where strategy becomes important. Every move—whether upsizing, downsizing, or holding—needs to be evaluated within the context of today’s market, not just future expectations.
If you’re thinking about what your next move might look like—whether now or a few years down the road—it can be helpful to understand where your home fits in today’s market. We’re always happy to provide that perspective.
Source: RE/MAX Canada
