In October we saw statistical strength in the Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate market, however, the narrative stayed consistent with the 2018 story; the average home price has tracked sideways, supply of active listings is good – but a lot lower than the 10-year average, and sales are also good – slightly higher than the 10-year average.

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Supply

The lower than normal supply is still skewing the market in favour of Sellers in the lower price range. There are still multiple offer scenarios playing out for those homes priced under $550,000. Sales are a little slower for higher priced homes.

There were 760 homes listed in October – Up 14% vs last year

At the end of October there were 1014 active listings – Up 21% vs last year

514 homes sold in October – Up 7.8% vs last year

5070 homes have sold year-to-date vs 5822 at the same time in 2017 – Down 12.9%

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When we look at the type of properties sold in October it is very clear that the property types with lower values saw the most movement – not only the increased number of these properties that sold (condos and towns) vs last year, but also the movement in price.

297 Detached homes sold – Up 4.6% vs last year

128 Condominiums sold – Up 19.6% vs last year

36 Semi-detached sold – Down 18.2% vs last year

47 Freehold Townhomes – Up 23.7% vs last year

October Average Sale prices (Vs October 2017):

Single Detached homes                 $576,731             Up 6.2%

Apartment Condos                         $310,215             Up 24.1%

Townhouses                                     $387,602             Up 10.9%

Semi detached                                 $403,750             Up 13.8%

The average price of all Residential Real Estate sold in KW and area in October was $489,725 – UP 7.7%

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The Median price (or price where most of the sales are centred around) for all sales in October was $444,500 – UP 6.5% vs last year while the median for all detached homes sold was $525,350 – UP 8.5%

The average prices above together with the median tells us that most sales are happening between $275,000 and $625,000 for all residential sales. Where most sales for single detached homes are happening between $525,000 and $625,000.

There is a lot of noise out there now. There seems to be a lot of tension around the US political scene. Along with a shift towards protectionism globally. Interest rate hikes and the tightening of loose monetary policy or at least the expectation of such is definitely weighing. Also, it’s like people are tired of 10 years of “up”. There are a lot of doom conversations happening – I guess when things have been good for 10 years, the grouchy folks start to wake up and start telling the rest of us that things just need to get bad now: “enough of this good stuff”.

The great part about owning property is that you get to live in it or you can get someone to rent it from you. You get to lock interest rates. And the supply/demand for shelter is pretty attractive. Also, these downturns that these doomsday writers are all trying to call seem to have short life spans. Things get bad, fast, and then get bought up and people rise up even faster. These downturns seem to be short periods that, unless you panic, simply become a blip on a chart somewhere. Trying to time a purchase and/or sale to get a deal usually turns out to be luck and is very difficult to call. So, I say, ignore the grouchy folks out there and maybe even take a contrarian view – I do think things are going to be interesting. Here’s my bold prediction: We will see strength into spring 2019 where we set a new average price record in April – something around $530,000.

Until next month 😊