elitere | Jan. 20, 2026
As we move through the first month of 2026, many homeowners and buyers are asking the same question: Where is the Waterloo Region housing market headed next?
The short answer is this — 2025 was not a year of recovery or collapse. It was a year of reset.
Rather than dramatic swings, the market recalibrated. Pricing became more disciplined, buyers became more analytical, and homes began selling based on fundamentals again — not urgency or emotion. Below is a detailed breakdown of what happened in 2025, what December’s numbers tell us, and how these trends are shaping the year ahead in Waterloo Region.
In 2025, a total of 6,177 homes sold through the MLS® System in Waterloo Region. That represents:
In 2025, a total of 6,177 homes sold through the MLS® System in Waterloo Region. That represents:
This confirms what many homeowners felt firsthand: fewer transactions, longer selling timelines, and far more price sensitivity. Higher borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and affordability constraints changed buyer behaviour significantly. Buyers became more selective, more cautious, and far less willing to stretch beyond perceived value.
December reflected these same conditions. 306 homes sold, down 9.5% year-over-year and nearly 20% below the long-term December average. While sales remained muted, new listings continued to rise, shifting negotiating power and increasing buyer choice.
This is an important distinction: Homes are selling — but only when pricing, condition, and positioning align precisely with buyer expectations.
In 2025, a total of 6,177 homes sold through the MLS® System in Waterloo Region. That represents:
That modest month-over-month increase suggests pricing may be starting to stabilize after a prolonged adjustment period. However, performance varied significantly by property type.
Detached homes remained the strongest and most stable segment in Waterloo Region.
Well-located detached homes with functional layouts, finished basements, and meaningful updates continue to attract buyers. However, homes priced based on peak-market expectations are sitting longer and facing resistance.
Townhouses now face stronger competition — both from other townhomes and from detached properties when pricing overlaps. Buyers are carefully comparing value, making clear positioning essential.
Condos experienced the sharpest correction in 2025.
This decline was driven by reduced investor activity, higher carrying costs, increased resale inventory, and weaker pre-construction demand. While challenging for sellers, this shift has improved conditions for end-user buyers who now have greater negotiating leverage.
Overall, the year-to-date average price for all residential properties in Waterloo Region was $754,199, down 3.7% from 2024.
Source: Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®
Inventory growth was one of the defining themes of 2025.
Months of supply now sit at:
This does not signal oversupply — but it does confirm a move away from extreme seller-favourable conditions. Buyers are taking time, comparing options, and negotiating more confidently.
In December, homes took an average of 45 days to sell, compared to:
This reflects a more measured buyer mindset: more showings before offers, more conditions, and closer scrutiny of pricing and value.
Most indicators point toward stabilization rather than a rapid rebound in early 2026. Affordability remains a constraint, especially for first-time buyers. However, proposed federal and provincial incentives — including the removal of HST on new homes up to $1M for first-time buyers — may provide modest support.
Markets like Waterloo Region, which experienced significant growth between 2020 and 2022, are still working through that adjustment. Success in 2026 will continue to depend on accuracy, strategy, and execution.
If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026 — or simply want to understand how these trends apply to your specific home or neighbourhood — we’re always happy to provide tailored, data-driven guidance.
